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13 Oct 2013

Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook Analysis Report: October 14 - 18

The dollar ended the day little changed against the Swiss franc on Friday, amid hopes for a breakthrough in the political impasse in Washington ahead of a deadline to avoid a U.S. sovereign debt default.

USD/CHF
ended Friday’s session at 0.9122, up just 0.04% for the day, after falling as low as 0.9070 earlier. For the week, the pair gained 1.03%.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9014, the low of October 9 and near-term resistance at 0.9150.

The dollar found support as House Republicans and the Obama administration began a second day of negotiations on a deal to reopen the government and raise the U.S. debt ceiling in the short term.

The U.S. risks running out of cash if the government borrowing limit is not raised by 17 October.

Meanwhile, concerns over the economic impact of the political deadlock in Washington fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will further delay plans to start phasing out its USD85 billion a month asset purchase program.

Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s September meeting said the decision not to begin tapering stimulus was a "close call," with all but one voting member opting to leave the program unchanged.

Data released on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in nine months in October, as concerns over the impact of the government shutdown weighed.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index declined to 75.2 from a final reading of 77.5 in September, and below expectations for a reading of 76.0.

In the week ahead, investors will continued to closely monitor political developments in Washington. On Monday, markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, October 14

Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Tuesday, October 15

The U.S. is to release a report on manufacturing activity in the Empire state.

Wednesday, October 16

The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a leading indicator of economic health.

Thursday, October 17

The U.S. is also to release data on industrial production and manufacturing activity from the Philly Fed.

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