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13 Oct 2013

Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook Analysis Report: October 14 - 18

The dollar ended the week higher against the yen on Friday, boosted by optimism that U.S. lawmakers would reach a deal on the U.S budget and debt ceiling impasse, in time to avoid a sovereign debt default.

USD/JPY
ended Friday’s session at 98.56, up 0.40% for the day. For the week, the pair gained 1.93%.

The pair is likely to find support at 97.32, Thursday’s low and resistance at 99.03, the high of September 27.

Demand for the safe haven yen was hit as House Republicans and the Obama administration began a second day of negotiations on a deal to reopen the government and raise the U.S. debt ceiling for six weeks.
The U.S. risks running out of cash if the government borrowing limit is not raised by 17 October.

Meanwhile, concerns over economic impact of the political deadlock in Washington fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will further delay plans to start phasing out its USD85 billion a month asset purchase program.

Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s September meeting said the decision not to begin tapering stimulus was a "close call," with all but one voting member opting to leave the program unchanged.

Data released on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in nine months in October, as concerns over the impact of the government shutdown weighed.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index declined to 75.2 from a final reading of 77.5 in September, and below expectations for a reading of 76.0.

Elsewhere, the euro was also higher against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY settling at 133.45, 0.55% higher for the day and ending the week with gains of 1.61%.

In the week ahead, investors will continued to closely monitor political developments in Washington. Markets in the U.S. and Japan are to remain closed for holidays on Monday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Wednesday and Friday as there are no relevant events on these days.

Monday, October 14

Markets in Japan are to be closed for a national holiday.

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Tuesday, October 15

The U.S. is to release a report on manufacturing activity in the Empire state.

Thursday, October 17

The U.S. is to publish the weekly government report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on manufacturing activity from the Philly Fed.

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