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13 Oct 2013

Crude oil futures - weekly outlook Analysis Report: October 14 - 18

New York-traded crude oil futures ended Friday’s session at a 15-week low, amid growing concerns a U.S. government shutdown will create a drag on fourth quarter economic growth.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in November fell 0.96% on Friday to settle the week at USD102.02 a barrel by close of trade.

Prices fell by as much as 2.3% earlier in the day to hit a session low of USD100.60 a barrel, the weakest level since July 3. The November contract settled 1.38% higher at USD103.01 a barrel on Thursday.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD100.32 a barrel, the low from July 3 and resistance at USD103.57 a barrel, the high from October 10.

On the week, Nymex oil futures lost 1.75%, the fourth weekly decline in the past five weeks.

Investors continued to monitor negotiations over a U.S. budget impasse that has kept the federal government shut down since October 1. Markets were also growing increasingly concerned over negotiations to raise the U.S. debt ceiling.

The U.S. risks a sovereign debt default if the government borrowing limit is not raised by October 17.

Concerns over the impact the political deadlock in Washington is having on U.S. oil demand increased after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.8 million barrels last week, well above expectations for an increase of 1.5 million barrels.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 370.5 million barrels, the highest level since July.

Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's stimulus program was also in focus.

Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s September meeting said the decision not to begin tapering stimulus was a "close call," with all but one voting member opting to leave the program unchanged.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for November delivery shed 0.47% on Friday to settle the week at USD111.28 a barrel.

On the week, the London-traded Brent contract advanced 1.63%, while the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts stood at USD9.26 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, the most in four months.

Brent futures were boosted as fresh geopolitical developments in Libya raised concern oil production in the country will be disrupted.

A group of former rebels aligned with Libya’s interior ministry detained Prime Minister Ali Zaidan from a hotel in Tripoli on Thursday. He was later freed after the government said he was seized based on false information that an arrest warrant had been issued for him.

Libya is Africa's biggest holder of crude oil reserves. Countries in the Middle East and North Africa were responsible for 36% of global oil production and held 52% of proved reserves in 2012.

In the week ahead, investors will continue to closely monitor political developments in Washington.

Market players also looked ahead to a raft of Chinese economic data, including reports on inflation, gross domestic product, industrial production and retail sales.

Official data released on Saturday showed that China’s trade surplus narrowed sharply in September as exports declined unexpectedly, fuelling concerns over growth prospects in the world’s second-largest economy.

China’s trade surplus narrowed to USD15.2 billion last month from a surplus of USD28.6 billion in August, compared to estimates for a surplus of USD27.7 billion.

Chinese exports fell 0.3% from a year earlier, defying expectations for a 6% increase and following a 7.2% gain in August.

China is the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.

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